How to Build a 12-Month Payroll Forecast & Quota
A practical guide to forecasting payroll revenue and setting realistic sales quotas.
How to Build a 12-Month Payroll Forecast & Quota
Once a Check partner moves from beta into General Availability (GA), one of the most important GTM shifts is moving from opportunistic selling to planned, measurable growth. A 12-month payroll forecast is the foundation for that shift.
This guide explains why a forecast matters, how to think about quota expectations, and how to use monthly targets to improve your payroll GTM funnel over time.
Why a 12-Month Forecast Matters Post-GA
In beta, success is typically measured by:
- Early customer wins
- Product feedback
- Proof that payroll can be sold alongside your core product
Once you are in GA, the question changes from “Can we sell payroll?” to “How do we scale payroll predictably?”
A 12-month forecast allows you to:
- Set clear expectations for sales, marketing, and leadership
- Run monthly and quarterly GTM reviews
- Identify where your funnel is breaking (top of funnel, demos, close rates, or implementation handoff)
- Plan hiring, incentives, and marketing investment with confidence
Without a forecast, payroll growth feels random. With a forecast, payroll becomes a repeatable revenue motion.
What a Payroll Forecast Should Measure (Important)
Your payroll forecast and quota should be based on closed-won deals that are submitted to implementation, not when payrolls actually start running.
This distinction is critical.
Why this matters:
- Many payroll deals close in Q4 (Oct–Dec)
- A large portion of those employers won’t run their first payroll until January
- If you measure quota by first payroll run, your sales performance will look artificially low in Q4
Industry standard:
Quota credit is earned when:
- The employer has signed / committed
- The deal is marked closed-won
- The employer is submitted to implementation
This creates fair, predictable measurement for sales teams.
Using Legacy Payroll Data to Set Monthly Quotas
Below is real monthly quota distribution data from a legacy payroll provider. These percentages represent how much of the annual payroll revenue target is typically closed and submitted to implementation each month.
Month | % of Annual Quota |
July | 8.50% |
August | 7.40% |
September | 9.10% |
October | 12.10% |
November | 10.10% |
December | 5.70% |
January | 6.40% |
February | 6.40% |
March | 8.10% |
April | 8.80% |
May | 8.70% |
June | 8.70% |
Key Takeaways From This Distribution
1. Q4 Is the Biggest Close Window
October and November alone represent over 22% of the entire year. Employers want to:
- Lock in a payroll provider before year-end
- Avoid switching during tax season
- Start fresh in January
2. December Drops Sharply
December is not a strong closing month due to:
- Holidays
- Employer bandwidth
- Year-end distractions
Deals that would close in December often slip into early January.
3. January Is About Execution, Not Selling
Many January payrolls come from:
- Deals closed in Q4
- Employers finally running payroll after implementation
This is why measuring quota on submitted deals, not payroll runs, is essential.
How to Build Your Own 12-Month Payroll Forecast
Step 1: Set Your Annual Payroll Revenue Target
Start with:
- Base fee × number of employers
- PEPM × average employee count
- Expected upsells (if applicable)
This gives you a single annual payroll revenue goal.
Step 2: Apply Monthly Percentages
Use the distribution above as a starting point, especially if:
- You sell to SMBs
- Payroll is bundled with another core product
- Employers control their own switching timeline
Multiply your annual target by each month’s percentage to create monthly quota targets.
Step 3: Translate Revenue Into Employer Count
Sales teams don’t sell percentages — they sell employers.
Convert each month’s revenue quota into:
- Number of payroll deals
- Average deal size
This becomes the number your sales team can rally around.
Using the Forecast for Monthly & Quarterly GTM Reviews
A forecast is only valuable if you use it.
Each month, review:
- Leads generated
- Demos booked
- Deals closed
- Deals submitted to implementation
Then ask:
- Are we missing quota because we lack leads?
- Are demos not converting?
- Are deals stalling due to implementation fear?
- Is payroll messaging resonating with the right persona?
Each quarter, zoom out and assess:
- Which months consistently underperform
- Which GTM channels produce the highest-quality payroll leads
- Where sales enablement or messaging needs improvement
This is how payroll GTM becomes measurable and improvable, not reactive.
Final Guidance for Check Partners
- Do not over-optimize your forecast in year one — directionally correct is better than perfect
- Expect Q4 to drive a disproportionate amount of closed-won payroll deals
- Always measure quota on submitted implementations, not first payroll runs
- Use your forecast as a diagnostic tool, not just a revenue target
A strong 12-month payroll forecast turns payroll from “something we offer” into a core, scalable revenue engine.
Last updated on December 16, 2025